According to meteorologists, there is a 40% chance that the world will become so hot in the next five years that it will temporarily exceed the temperature limit set by the Paris Climate Agreement
A new World Meteorological Organization forecast for the next several years predicts that the world will set another record for hottest year by the end of 2025, and that the Atlantic will continue to brew more potentially dangerous hurricanes
than it used to.
Meteorologists predict that large parts of the Northern Hemisphere will be 1.4 degrees (0.8 degrees Celsius) warmer this year than in previous decades, and that the drought
in the United States
' Southwest will persist.
According to the report, there is a 40% chance that at least one of the next five years will be 1.5 degrees Celsius (2.7 degrees Fahrenheit) warmer than pre-industrial times — the more stringent of two Paris goals.
The same group predicted it would happen 20% of the time last year.
The doubling of the odds is due to technological advancements that show it has “actually warmed more than we thought already,” particularly over the poorly monitored polar regions, according to Leon Hermanson, a climate scientist at the Met Office in the United Kingdom who assisted with the forecast.
“It’s a wake-up call that we need to take decisive action,” Hermanson explained.
Climate scientist Michael Mann of Pennsylvania
State University, who was not involved in the report, said he is “almost certain” the world will exceed the Paris warming target at least once in the next few years, but that one or two years above 1.5 degrees Celsius (2.7 degrees Fahrenheit) isn’t as concerning as when the overall trend of temperatures remains above that level.
Mann believes that this will not happen for decades and that it is still preventable.
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